Call of the Wilde: Canadiens come up short in playoff opener to Capitals – Montreal
They weren’t supposed to be here. The Montreal Canadiens were predicted to be the fifth worst team in the NHL. They flipped the script to make the playoffs.
The next phase promises to be more difficult. The Canadiens facing the best team in the east – the Washington Capitals.
In Game 1, it was yet another third period comeback for Montreal as they forced overtime before finally 3-2.
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For many, it was the first playoff hockey of their professional lives. It’s a time usually filled with butterflies, mistakes, and anxiety when you begin, but the Canadiens held their own against the top seed.
Washington had a plan for Montreal and it was to hit everything. The Canadiens were not intimated. They did not wilt under the physical challenge. In fact, if it weren’t for Logan Thompson’s excellent save on a Nick Suzuki two-on-one Montreal could have been tied late in the first.
In the second, Suzuki made a terrific pass to Cole Caufield, but his deflection hit the crossbar.
In the third period, the Canadiens best forwards did finally click with the extra-man. Caufield slid it home with nine minutes left.
The Canadiens tied it with a monstrous effort from the top line. Juraj Slafkovsky got hit to the ice, but he kept playing to free the puck. The play continued when Lane Hutson calmly passed it across to open space. Eventually, the moment of truth was Suzuki’s. His calmness during the storm was something to behold. He waited when everyone around him was panicking. He changed his angle to find an open net to force overtime.
Samuel Montembeault was one of those players in his first playoff game. Eyes fall directly on a goalie at this moment. Always, everyone is examining whether the goalie looks relaxed and ready. The challenge is that a goalie must be motivated by the will to succeed, over the fear of failure. There’s no hiding from fear when you’re a goalie.
Montembeault had that answer early and then often. He was one of the hottest goalies down the stretch, and it continued in game one. Montembeault looked like a number one goalie as he has since the Four Nations break.
Defensively, the best was Kaiden Guhle. He was the MVP of the Western Hockey League playoffs as a junior. Guhle is clearly a player who rises to the occasion of the moment. He’s a winner who loves a big game.
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The Canadiens must get more offence than from just one line. The Suzuki line provided 80 per cent of the chances in this one. The Christian Dvorak line the other 20 percent.
Unlike the regular season when there is no real time to prepare to stop one line, in the playoffs that is exactly what the opposing coach will do with a week on his hands. That means Suzuki’s line can succeed fairly freely in the regular season when a team rolls into town for one game, but in a long series, expect a lot of attention.
Success comes only when there is support offensively down the roster. The Canadiens did not get it. Other lines must create more offense.
The positive that can be said about the Dvorak and Evans lines is that they didn’t allow much while they were packing little offensive punch.
That can’t be said for the second line though. They continued to suffer without a centre that can win the middle of the ice. Alex Newhook has had a strong season. He is learning that he can lift that ceiling to be a better hockey player. He is starting to use his speed better.
However, he isn’t destined for the middle on the second line. The Capitals are strong at centre. Dylan Strome, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nic Dowd, and Lars Eller might be the best foursome down the middle in hockey. The lack of a second line centre makes the Capitals strength there a difficult challenge to overcome for Montreal.
It also felt like the Capitals were able to exploit their size over Montreal. The referees were fine with a lot of ignoring the puck to run a Habs player. They game-planned long nights for small players like Hutson, and Caufield and they did get hit more than usually do.
It felt like much of that ignoring the puck was interference, but this is a trend in the league recently to not penalize this style of play. That’s putting even a stronger emphasis on size and the Canadiens may need more of it in the long run, if hitting players all night who don’t have the puck is acceptable. It is effective as a strategy. It isn’t exactly hockey, but it is effective.
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Through this century, a thorough examination of rebuilds in the NHL has shown that they are a painfully long slog of losses piled upon losses.
In some instances, the rebuild has taken so long one can almost feel sorry for some fan bases who have maintained their love for their team despite getting absolutely no love in return.
The Buffalo Sabres are approaching Year 15 without a playoff spot in a rebuild that has seen eight coaches and four general managers. The Detroit Red Wings are coming to a full decade without making the post-season. Rock bottom comes fast and it stays for dessert.
The best rebuilds in the last decade are the New York Rangers and Chicago Blackhawks of four seasons. The Rangers rebuild has recently fallen into disrepair. The Hawks rebuild led to three Stanley Cups. These are the best examples of success. The average rebuild is in the neighbourhood of five to seven seasons.
The Canadiens are close to setting a new standard of excellence in rebuild length. If the rebuild began with the hiring of GM Kent Hughes and the proclamation from owner Geoff Molson that it was a ‘full rebuild’, then the Canadiens needed only a remarkable and stunning 39 months to get back to the playoffs.
It must be noted, though, a rebuild must stick to be a true rebuild; that the one playoff season can’t be an outlier. Greatness in terms of the playoffs, and deep playoff runs must be consistent each year.
To be a Stanley Cup contender, a team must have dynamic pieces. Some like to say it is five stars as an absolute minimum must. Others note that there must be five top-six forwards and three top-four defenders. The Canadiens are on their way successfully in both metrics.
The five stars are Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Ivan Demidov, Lane Hutson and soon-to-be Juraj Slafkovsky. In this scenario, star is measured in the study as .75 points-per-game for a forward and .50 PPG for a defender. The stars in Montreal are all young. They all have long futures in front of them. The rebuild is secure.
By the second metric, the Canadiens are also in outstanding position. Four top-six forwards are Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, and Demidov. Perhaps it could be argued successfully that one more is required, thus keeping Patrik Laine off the list. Alex Newhook is still improving and Michael Hage has potential as well. To be fair, they are one short at this moment.
On defence, Lane Hutson and Kaiden Guhle are locked in as certain top-four for the next decade. It would be fair to say Hughes needs one more to land considering the age of Mike Matheson for the long success of the rebuild. David Reinbacher finding health and a top-four game would be massive. Again, in the interest of fairness, one more must land to reach the target that says Stanley Cup potential.
It’s easy to see how close total rebuild success is for the Canadiens. They only need two already drafted players to find their ceiling.
Congratulations to Hughes and his staff. They’ve built a playoff team already in season three and have a foundation for many years of success to come.