Flood and fire risks remain, despite positive signals in B.C. seasonal outlook
British Columbia looks well-positioned to avoid the worst of early-season floods and fires this year, provincial officials said Wednesday.
Representatives from multiple provincial ministries, as well as forecasters with the BC Wildfire Service and B.C. River Forecast Centre, delivered their flood and wildfire outlook for the season.
Officials said the province’s overall snowpack, while about 20 per cent lower than average, remains significantly higher than last year. At the same time, persistent drought conditions continue to linger in some parts of B.C., though they have abated somewhat from previous years.
Province-wide, B.C.’s snowpack currently sits at about 79 per cent of normal, up from 63 per cent this time last year, according to River Forecast Centre head David Campbell.
The Fraser basin mirrors that figure, while some areas “well below” 70 per cent, including the Central coast and Chilcotin, the Skeena and Nass basins, the Nechako basin and the Similkameen.
Campbell said lower snowpack means a reduced flood risk, though hot weather or heavy rainfall could quickly change that.
“With the low snowpack, we really do need to see an extreme weather driver to push flooding. It’s not something that will happen with seasonal weather or more favourable conditions like a slow, steady melt or drier conditions into the spring,” he said.
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Snowmelt is expected to begin in earnest over the coming weeks as weather warms up, prompting warnings for residents to be prepared in the event of an emergency.
“Even with the below normal snowpack, where we are now in much of the province, we can’t let our guard down,” Minister of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship Randene Neill said.
“The timing, the speed and the intensity of the snowmelt along with rainfall or potential rainfall are all key factors that can quickly shift conditions and elevate flood hazards, as, unfortunately, I think most of us in British Columbia know all too well.”
While less snow could be good news for people who live communities with higher flood risks, it could also play into the summer wildfire threat.
Matt McDonald, lead fire weather forecaster for the BC Wildfire Service, said extremely dry conditions in January and February fortunately gave way to a very wet March in southern B.C., helping boost snowpack and reduce drought risk at lower elevations.
But multi-year drought conditions have persisted in northeastern B.C., a region hard-hit by wildfires in recent years.
Wildfire officials are also closely watching the western Chilcotin region, which has also been drier than usual, he added.
But compared to 2024, the picture has greatly improved, McDonald said.
“Yes, drought is still present, particularly in the northeast and the Chilcotin, Nechako area, but you can see overall the drought is less severe — so it’s still with us, but we are kind of rounding the corner,” he said.
“Overall, especially in the south, we are expecting a less aggressive fire start than previous years owing to all that precipitation and an earlier green up than normal.”
The intense wildfires in northeastern B.C. have also left the region with a silver lining — many of the most dangerous fuels have already burned off, and burn scars have created natural fire breaks in some areas, he added.
While the early season outlook is favourable, in the longer term the province may face a hot summer — and the wildfire risks that come with that.
McDonald noted that a weak La Nina climate pattern, which is associated with cooler weather, has ended. At the same time, forecasters have detected a warm anomaly in ocean surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
“That warm water is inevitably going to play into a warm seasonal outlook for the spring and likely into the summer as well,” he said.
Ahead of the flood and fire risk seasons, the province is urging everyone to ensure they have an emergency kit or grab-and-go bag, along with an emergency plan.
You can find out more on how to prepare for emergencies and disasters at the province’s PreparedBC website.
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